Australia & Oceania – The Dual Reality of Exporter Ambition and Existential Threat

The Oceania region presents one of the most compelling and dramatic climate narratives globally. On one hand sits Australia, a major developed economy and one of the world's largest exporters of fossil fuels, whose climate policy has seen dramatic shifts over the past decade. On the other hand, are the Pacific Island Nations (PINs), whose sovereignty and very survival are acutely threatened by sea-level rise and extreme weather events caused by the emissions of industrial nations. This article explores the contrasting climate commitments, policies, and vulnerabilities across this diverse region.

ENERGY POLICYMOST RECENT

Aadesh Aslekar

11/25/20254 min read

Australia: From Climate Laggard to Global Competitor

Australia's climate policy since the Paris Agreement has been marked by political division and, more recently, a sharp acceleration in ambition. Its transition is defined by the tension between its massive resource export industry and its immense renewable energy potential.

Actions Taken (2015-2022): Australia initially submitted a relatively low NDC, committing to a 26-28% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030. For many years, national policy was politically constrained, leading climate analysts to rate its commitment as "Insufficient." The policy focuses often prioritized carbon farming and land-based offsets.

The Turning Point (2022-2025): The election of a new government in 2022 marked a significant policy turnaround. The government immediately legislated a more ambitious target of a 43% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 and formally committed to Net-Zero by 2050. This was supported by the Climate Change Act 2022 and a focus on reforming the Safeguard Mechanism to require the country's highest emitters to reduce their emissions against a steadily declining baseline.

Current Status (2025): Australia is aggressively expanding its renewable energy sector, with initiatives like the Rewiring the Nation plan aimed at modernizing the national electricity grid to handle an 82% renewable energy share by 2030. The government recently announced its 2035 NDC target of a 62-70% reduction against 2005 levels, signalling a serious push to become a "renewable energy superpower" and a key exporter of green hydrogen and low-carbon fuels. Emissions are trending downwards, though the pace needs to accelerate rapidly to meet the new 2035 target.

Future Plans: Australia's future is defined by its Net Zero Plan and six supporting sectoral plans. The strategy leverages the country's abundant sun and wind resources to transition from being a major exporter of fossil fuels to a global leader in clean energy and green commodities. The challenge lies in managing the decline of its massive thermal coal and gas export industries and ensuring a just transition for resource-dependent regions.

The Pacific Island Nations: Climate Leadership on the Front Lines

The Pacific Island Nations (PINs), often referred to as the "canaries in the coal mine," are the least responsible for global emissions but the most acutely vulnerable to their impacts.

Existential Vulnerability: For PINs like Tuvalu, Kiribati, and the Marshall Islands, climate change is not a future problem but an existential threat. They face immediate impacts from sea-level rise (threatening low-lying atolls), increased intensity of tropical cyclones (like Cyclone Pam in 2015), ocean acidification, and threats to food and water security.

Ambitious NDCs and Moral Authority: Despite contributing just 0.03% of global GHG emissions, PINs have shown remarkable climate leadership. Many have submitted highly ambitious NDCs that align with the 1.5°C goal, often targeting 100% renewable energy penetration and carbon neutrality by 2050. Countries like Fiji were among the first to ratify the Paris Agreement. Their strategy relies on moral authority to pressure larger emitters into higher ambition.

Focus on Adaptation and Finance: The primary focus for PINs is not mitigation, but adaptation and securing climate finance. Their national actions prioritize coastal protection, relocating communities, developing climate-resilient infrastructure (health systems, agriculture), and securing funding from international partners and multilateral climate funds (like the Green Climate Fund). Australia, for its part, has committed significant climate finance to the Pacific region.

Future Plans: PINs are leading the call for more ambitious NDC 3.0 targets from all countries. Their future strategy is centered on regional cooperation, such as the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, which places climate change and ocean-based solutions at the heart of their security and development vision.

Conclusion

The Oceania region showcases the full spectrum of climate challenges and responsibility. While Australia is now rapidly transforming its national economy to capitalize on the green energy race, its path must be mindful of its historical emissions and its regional responsibilities. The fate of the Pacific Islands serves as a constant, urgent reminder that the 1.5°C limit is not an abstract target but a matter of national survival.

References:

Australia’s climate change action - DCCEEW

Climate change | Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Tracking and reporting greenhouse gas emissions - DCCEEW

International Indigenous climate action - DCCEEW

5th Pacific Regional Energy and Transport Ministers Meeting (2023) | SPC Geoscience, Energy and Maritime Division

The Coalition prepares to soften Australia’s 2030 climate target, while reaffirming its commitment to the Paris Agreement

Australia’s emissions projections 2024 - DCCEEW

https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/australias-emissions-projections-chart-data.xlsm

Climate Change Bill 2022 – Parliament of Australia

Net Zero - DCCEEW

Critical Minerals and Hydrogen Production Tax Incentives | Australian Taxation Office